A projection circulating on social media, drawn from council by-election results between 10 May and 1 October 2026, places Reform UK as the largest party in a hypothetical Westminster election but short of an overall majority. The graphic, shared by the account UK Dispatch, estimates Reform UK at 24.2 per cent of the vote and 291 seats in Great Britain. That leaves the party 35 seats below the 326 required for a majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. Under the same figure

The hub card puts the Conservatives first. They took 26.3% of the votes cast in the day’s by-elections. Labour was second on 22.8%. Reform UK was third on 19.2%. The Greens were on 16.4%. The Liberal Democrats were on 13.2%. Restore Britain and Your Party were on 0%. Other votes, mostly independents, were on 2.2%. The card is labelled Westminster voting intention. The small print says it is based on by-elections that day. It is a count of ballots, not a national poll. Where t

On the hub’s own measure, the Conservatives were the largest party in the ballot box on 24 September. Across five council by-elections they took 26.3% of the votes cast. Labour was second on 22.8%. Reform UK was third on 19.2%. The Greens were on 16.4%, the Liberal Democrats on 13.2%, and independents on 2.2%. The SNP, Plaid Cymru, Restore Britain and Your Party did not register a vote in this set of wards. That is a local snapshot. It is not a forecast of a general election.