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Polling 02/09/2026:

Ryan Edwards
Oct 3
2 min read
UK Dispatch graphic of Westminster voting intention, ballot box and party rosettes, with cracked crown and Hung Parliament text.

The hub card puts the Conservatives first. They took 26.3% of the votes cast in the day’s by-elections. Labour was second on 22.8%. Reform UK was third on 19.2%.

The Greens were on 16.4%. The Liberal Democrats were on 13.2%. Restore Britain and Your Party were on 0%. Other votes, mostly independents, were on 2.2%.

The card is labelled Westminster voting intention. The small print says it is based on by-elections that day. It is a count of ballots, not a national poll.


Where the numbers come from

The Election Hub sheet for 24 September logs five principal-authority by-elections. The shares on the card are the pooled vote from those five wards, about 8,700 ballot papers.


Table of party vote shares: Conservative 26.3%, Labour 22.8%, Reform UK 19.2%, Green 16.4%, Lib Dem 13.2%, others lower

The five contests were Queens Park in Brighton and Hove, Blockley in the Cotswolds, New Bradwell in Milton Keynes, Wombourne North in South Staffordshire, and Bray in Windsor and Maidenhead.

Seats did not follow the vote pile in a straight line.

  • Queens Park: Green gain from Labour. Green 50.1%, Labour 35.2%, Reform UK 7.0%.

  • Blockley: Conservative gain from Green. Conservative 54.0%, Liberal Democrat 30.1%.

  • New Bradwell: Labour hold. Labour 54.2%, Reform UK 23.4%.

  • Wombourne North: Conservative hold. Conservative 50.1%, Reform UK 37.4%.

  • Bray: Conservative hold. Conservative 36.1%, Liberal Democrat 34.9%, Reform UK 17.8%.

On the night the Conservatives gained one and held two. Labour held one and lost one. The Greens gained one and lost one. Restore Britain and Your Party did not stand in these wards, which is why the card shows them at 0%.


What the card does not say

A by-election pool is only as typical as the wards on the ballot. Queens Park is a Green–Labour fight in Brighton, and it casts a lot of votes, so the Greens look strong on the card. Wombourne North is Conservative ground, and Reform took 37.4% there while managing only 7% in Brighton. Bray was a near-tie between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Put those five together and the Conservatives come out on top. That is a real result from real ballot boxes. It is not evidence that the Conservatives are leading Britain.

The hub’s own sheet shows how fast this measure moves. The next logged week, 1 October, six by-elections produced Labour 35.2%, Reform UK 30.6% and Conservative 22.8%. Same method. Different map.


The read

On this card the Conservatives are first, three and a half points clear of Labour, and seven points clear of Reform UK. The Greens are ahead of the Liberal Democrats. The right-wing vote is split, and the left-of-Conservative vote is split further.

No party on the card is close to half the vote. A Westminster election fought on these shares would not hand anyone a majority. The card is a snapshot of five wards on one Thursday, not a forecast. As a snapshot, it is a Conservative day at the top, and a fragmented field underneath.


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